How Israel’s War Against Hamas Will Shift Under Trump’s Influence

With President Donald Trump in the White House, Israel is reportedly operating with fewer constraints in its ongoing war against Hamas, significantly altering its military approach and the potential outcome of the conflict.

One former senior Israeli official highlighted the dynamic, stating, "Netanyahu can continue this war for another year. If Trump tells him in two weeks, enough, now you have to go for a deal, he would." The official pointed to a new strategy involving dividing Gaza into controlled corridors, with Israeli oversight on food and civilian movement, aiming to pressurize Hamas.

John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point’s Modern War Institute, explained that the Trump administration has taken a firm stance: Israel has been given significant leeway to prosecute its campaign against Hamas, contrasting with the more restrictive approach under the Biden administration. "Release all the hostages, including American citizens, or I will provide Israel everything it needs," Spencer summarized the Trump team’s position.

The collapse of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has reignited military operations. Israel cited Hamas' refusal to release hostages as its rationale for resuming attacks, while Hamas claimed Israel didn’t honor the ceasefire agreement. The tension has escalated, with Israel targeting not only Hamas’ military facilities but also its governmental network.

Jonathan Conricus, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasized Egypt’s role in the conflict. "This time around, Egypt will be forced by the U.S. to open up the gate and allow Palestinians to flee the battlefield," he argued, criticizing Egypt’s restrictive policies that have exacerbated civilian suffering.

For Israel, the stakes are high. "For the first time, Israel will be able to use all available weapons to decisively defeat Hamas," Conricus added. However, experts have raised questions about the long-term implications of dismantling Hamas’ governance structure.

The hostage situation remains a flashpoint. While Israel believes military pressure is necessary to secure their release, concerns about the hostages’ safety have sparked protests within the country. Conricus warned, "The risk to hostages has increased. Hamas may execute some in retaliation, but the way I see it, Israel had no choice but to resume military operations."

Assaf Orion, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and INSS, acknowledged the inherent tension between military objectives and hostage negotiations. "There is a clear conflict between releasing the hostages, which involves a deal, and eradicating Hamas, which involves fighting. If the hostages are killed, that’s irreversible. An enduring defeat to Hamas, we all understand, is a generational task," Orion said.

Whether Hamas can be completely defeated remains uncertain. Spencer believes it’s possible but cautioned, "Israel must commit to holding the ground it clears, or Hamas could regroup and return."

The outcome of Israel’s renewed campaign will likely hinge on Trump’s political approach. If he decides to push for negotiations, Netanyahu may follow suit. For now, Israel appears poised to continue its most extensive military operation yet.