March Madness 2025: Grok’s Eye-Catching First-Round Upset Picks

March Madness has arrived, and Grok, the AI brainpower, is ready to help you fine-tune your bracket. If you’re staring at your picks with sweaty palms, wondering which Cinderella stories might unfold, you’re not alone.

Let’s get one thing straight: the odds of a perfect bracket are an absolutely bonkers 1 in 147.5 quintillion. Even AI isn’t pulling that magic off. But Grok has managed to churn out a list of likely first-round upsets, and it’s got some spicy predictions to keep your bracket interesting. Here’s what Grok served up.

First, Grok’s upset radar highlighted three No. 12 seeds, two No. 11 seeds, a pair of No. 13 seeds, and even a cheeky No. 14 seed to watch out for. History has shown that a No. 12 seed win isn’t exactly rare—33 of the last 39 tournaments have seen at least one No. 12 seed advance. Keep that stat in mind.

According to Grok, Kentucky’s infamous 2022 flop as a No. 2 seed against St. Peter’s could have a modern echo. This time, Troy’s defensive chops—ranking 65th in takeaways and 27th in points allowed per game—might exploit an injury-hit Wildcats squad. Upset alert? Possibly.

On the Bruins’ end, Utah State’s fast-paced style could cause headaches. They rank 52nd in offensive possession length and a glacial 361st on defense. If the Bruins stumble, Utah State will be why.

Then there’s the Boilermakers, haunted by their epic crash as a No. 1 seed against Fairleigh Dickinson two years ago. This year, they face High Point, a team on fire with 14 straight wins and a deadly accurate shooting percentage ranking seventh nationally. Can Purdue avoid déjà vu?

Drake, a No. 11 seed, is on Grok’s radar against Missouri. Drake’s defensive consistency, allowing only 59.7 points per game (second-best nationally), contrasts sharply with Missouri’s shaky defense and middling free-throw stats. But hold on—KenPom ratings suggest Missouri may be the underrated gem here, ranked 15th compared to Drake’s much lower 58th spot. So, is this a classic “numbers don’t tell the whole story” situation? Maybe.

Moving on, UC San Diego is poised to give Michigan a run for their money. UCSD ranks sixth in forced turnovers while Michigan sits at a dismal 340th in turnover rankings. Add Michigan’s poor 3-point percentage (195th) to UCSD’s solid showing (57th), and you’ve got a potential upset brewing. But don’t sleep on KenPom, which still places Michigan 25th, 13 spots higher than UCSD.

Liberty also gets a nod from Grok. Their sixth-ranked true shooting percentage and stellar 3-point accuracy make them a threat to Oregon. However, Liberty’s abysmal free-throw ranking (348th) could be their Achilles’ heel, especially against Oregon’s respectable 49th place in that category.

No. 13 seeds could also shake things up. Yale, for instance, stunned No. 4 Auburn last year and could do it again. With Yale’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense and the Aggies’ dreadful 317th ranking in effective field-goal percentage, the odds of history repeating itself don’t seem far-fetched.

Finally, Grok notes that Colorado State might upset Memphis. Fun fact: Vegas actually favors Colorado State by 2.5 points, despite them being the “underdog.” Injury concerns and bad losses against lower-tier teams have made Memphis look vulnerable.

So, there you have it—Grok’s crystal ball has spoken. Upsets are the lifeblood of March Madness, and this year’s first round promises some thrilling possibilities. Whether or not these predictions hold, one thing’s for sure: brackets will be busted, and chaos will reign. Let the madness begin!