Mexico’s High-Stakes Diplomacy: Troops, Cartels, and a China Pivot

When President Trump threatened to slap Mexico with steep tariffs, many feared an economic storm on the horizon. But as the deadline looms, Mexico’s leadership is showcasing a multi-pronged strategy to stave off the financial blow — one that involves troop deployments, cartel crackdowns, and even a calculated pivot toward China.

President Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be taking Trump’s grievances head-on, particularly around migration and the drug trade. In a bold move, she has deployed 10,000 troops to deter migrants heading for the U.S. border. Efforts to dismantle migrant caravans have intensified, with busing programs implemented to move migrants away from border areas.

Meanwhile, Sheinbaum’s administration is tackling cartel activity with an iron fist. Dozens of top cartel operatives have been handed over to the United States, thanks in part to intelligence from C.I.A. drone flights. And in a sharp departure from her predecessor's denialist stance, Sheinbaum has embraced a fentanyl crackdown, leading to record-breaking seizures of the deadly drug.

But that’s not all. Mexico is playing the long game by imposing tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports. This strategic maneuver aims to position Mexico as a key ally to the U.S. in countering China’s economic dominance. It’s a shrewd play — one that could ultimately solidify Mexico’s role as a low-cost industrial partner for its northern neighbor.

Despite Trump’s continued threats to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexican exports as soon as Tuesday, Mexico’s financial markets remain surprisingly steady. It seems the business elite are betting on Sheinbaum’s ability to pull off a deal in time.

Diego Marroquín Bitar, a trade expert at the Wilson Center, summed it up: “The way she’s been able to manage this crisis has been far superior than any other leader.” High praise, but also a reminder of just how high the stakes are.