NATO Summit Preview: Trump, Defense Spending, and Iran Threats Take Center Stage

The upcoming NATO summit, set to take place in The Hague, Netherlands, from June 24-25, promises to be a pivotal gathering as global tensions simmer and alliances are tested. With a packed agenda covering defense spending, aid to Ukraine, and emerging threats from Iran, Russia, and China, all eyes are on President Donald Trump as he returns to the transatlantic stage. This will be his first NATO summit since reclaiming the White House, and if history is any guide, we can expect fireworks.

One of the headline issues is a proposed hike in defense spending, with whispers of a jump from the current 2% of GDP target to as high as 5%. Trump has been a loud advocate for this increase, though the sticker shock has some allies balking. While the U.S. currently spends 3.38% of its GDP on defense, many NATO members still struggle to hit the lower benchmark. Reports suggest a compromise around 3.5% over a decade might be in play, with some flexibility for categories like cybersecurity. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has been vocal about the urgency of bolstering capabilities, especially as Europe faces its gravest threats since World War II.

Then there’s Ukraine—a perennial flashpoint that may take a backseat this time. Despite the ongoing war with Russia, Trump’s insistence on higher spending and his reluctance to fast-track Kyiv’s NATO membership could dampen the focus on Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to attend parts of the summit, though his presence at official meetings remains unconfirmed. With ceasefire talks stalled and Trump’s past clashes with allies over Russia still fresh, the mood around Ukraine’s defense could be more pragmatic than passionate.

Iran, however, is poised to dominate discussions following the U.S.’s recent strikes on its nuclear facilities. Dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, the operation targeted key sites, escalating tensions with Tehran at a critical moment. This development, paired with Iran’s role in supporting Russia’s war machine through drones and expertise, underscores the broader threat to Western interests. Add to this Russia’s alliances with China and North Korea, and you’ve got a geopolitical stew that’s boiling over. Intelligence warnings from Germany and Denmark paint a grim picture of Russia’s postwar ambitions, with potential hostile actions against NATO neighbors on the horizon.

As Rutte starkly put it, failing to invest in defense now might mean learning to speak Russian later. The summit will also grapple with the interconnected threats from China’s supply of critical tech to Russia and North Korea’s missile advancements, all while Trump’s stance on troop withdrawals from Europe looms large. This gathering isn’t just about budgets—it’s about the very future of collective security in a world that feels increasingly unhinged.