Obesity Will Affect Over Half of Adults in 25 Years, Study Predicts

Obesity continues to be a global epidemic, and according to new data published in The Lancet, things are on track to get even worse. A recent study reveals that as of 2021, the number of overweight or obese adults worldwide has doubled since 1990, with over one billion men and 1.11 billion women over the age of 25 affected.

Eight countries are bearing the brunt of this crisis, with more than half of the world's overweight and obese individuals residing in China (402 million), India (180 million), the United States (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).

If the current trajectory continues, projections indicate that by 2050, 57.4% of men and 60.3% of women globally will fall into the overweight or obese category. Researchers also anticipate China, India, and the U.S. will lead in numbers, with 627 million, 450 million, and 214 million cases, respectively.

Alarmingly, nearly a quarter of obese adults by 2050 are expected to be aged 65 or older, further straining healthcare systems worldwide. The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study across 204 countries, highlights that younger generations are gaining weight at a faster rate and earlier in life than previous ones. This shift increases the likelihood of developing serious health conditions such as type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and multiple cancers.

Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) described the epidemic as a "profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure." She emphasized the importance of targeted interventions, noting that some populations require immediate treatment while others should focus on preventive measures.

While the study provides critical insights, researchers acknowledged limitations, including reliance on self-reported data and the use of body mass index (BMI) as a measurement, which may not account for variations across different ethnic groups and subpopulations. The study also did not factor in the potential impact of new anti-obesity medications like GLP-1 treatments.

Dr. Brett Osborn, a neurosurgeon and longevity expert, did not hold back in his assessment, calling obesity "the single greatest modifiable threat to longevity, economic stability, and national security." He criticized cultural attitudes that normalize obesity and avoid personal responsibility, pointing instead to sedentary lifestyles, ultra-processed foods, and an "entitlement mentality" as the real culprits.

According to Osborn, "Obesity is caused by caloric surplus and a lack of movement. When you consistently eat more calories than you burn, you gain weight. Period." He warned that if the projections hold true, obesity-related diseases could cripple healthcare systems, leading to over 1.3 billion global diabetes cases and more than two million obesity-driven cancers annually by 2050. The economic burden, he noted, could exceed $4 trillion per year, a number he described as "unsustainable."

Osborn made it clear that the battle against obesity is not about aesthetics or shaming individuals but about ensuring survival. "The world has two choices: Act aggressively now or pay an unfathomable price later," he urged. "The time to fight obesity — relentlessly and unapologetically — is now."

The study, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and conducted by the GBD 2021 Adolescent and Adult BMI Collaborators, serves as a wake-up call for governments and the public health community. With obesity-related conditions threatening to overwhelm healthcare systems and economies, the urgency to prioritize prevention and treatment has never been greater.