The Hitchhiker's Guide to Avoiding a Government Shutdown Tonight

The Senate is gearing up for a pivotal vote around 2 p.m. ET today that could either prevent or all but guarantee a government shutdown at the stroke of midnight. This test vote will determine whether the filibuster on the Republican stopgap spending bill can be broken. If successful, a shutdown might just be avoided; if not, brace yourselves for some political drama by Saturday morning.

Important to note: This vote is far from the final passage of the bill. It's essentially the Senate testing the waters before diving into deeper legislative territory. Expect results sometime between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m., assuming no one decides to play political 'drag-your-feet' games.

Last Night’s Game Changer: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer unexpectedly announced his support for the Republican Band-Aid bill, throwing an interesting curveball into the mix. Sen. John Fetterman also backed the move, creating a glimmer of hope for reaching the 60 votes needed to break the filibuster.

Here’s the math: The lone Republican holdout is Sen. Rand Paul, which means eight Democrats will need to join the 52 Republican votes to hit the magic number. All eyes are now on Democratic senators like Dick Durbin, Tim Kaine, and John Hickenlooper to see if they step up to cross the aisle.

Should the Democrats fail to muster those eight votes, it would be a major miscalculation for Schumer. As the saying goes, a leader without followers is just a guy taking a stroll. That stroll could lead straight into shutdown territory if the coalition doesn’t hold.

What We Don’t Know: Assuming the test vote succeeds, the timeline for an actual vote on the bill remains murky. It could happen late this afternoon or evening, but there’s a chance that Democrats might use their leverage to demand amendment votes or other concessions. Progressive Democrats, furious at Schumer for supporting this temporary measure, might also want their moment on the floor to voice their opposition.

Meanwhile, there’s growing impatience to wrap things up and leave Washington—10 consecutive weeks in session can do that to a person. If the filibuster is broken, expect the pace to quicken as senators scramble to pack their bags and head home.