Trump Secures Historic Iran Ceasefire as Experts Warn of Lingering Threats

In a stunning turn of events, Iran has agreed to a ceasefire following a calculated, limited strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar. This historic agreement, brokered by President Donald Trump, signals a dramatic de-escalation after 12 intense days of conflict that gripped the Middle East.

While the ceasefire hangs in a fragile balance, experts point to the severe damage inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure as the driving force behind this retreat. Coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes have targeted nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and key production facilities, leaving Iran’s arsenal in tatters. ‘Iran cannot win this war,’ declared military historian Danny Orbach from Hebrew University, noting that roughly 60% of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, crippling their ability to deploy even their remaining 1,000 long-range missiles effectively.

The strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the region, caused no casualties and only minor damage. Analysts suggest this was a deliberate move by Iran to avoid provoking a full-scale U.S. response. ‘They don’t want an all-out war,’ said Sima Shine, a former Mossad official, emphasizing Iran’s awareness that actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz would backfire disastrously.

Yet, the threat is far from over. Iran retains a formidable short-range capability, with thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones poised to strike U.S. bases and critical infrastructure across the Gulf. Blaise Misztal from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America warned that energy hubs, major cities, and commercial shipping remain vulnerable. Meanwhile, retired General Frank McKenzie has long cautioned that U.S. bases like Al Udeid are dangerously exposed to Iranian attacks due to their proximity, urging a strategic repositioning and enhanced missile defenses.

Beyond the battlefield, Iran’s losses have left it at a crossroads. Orbach likened their dilemma to choosing between rebuilding missiles, funding proxies, or reviving nuclear ambitions—options they can’t afford simultaneously. And while their military might is diminished, their capacity for indirect aggression through cyber warfare and proxy attacks persists. ‘This regime’s hostility is its identity,’ Misztal noted, doubting that recent setbacks will temper Iran’s long-standing belligerence.

As the dust settles, the world watches to see if this ceasefire holds—or if it’s merely a pause before the next storm in a region perpetually on edge.