Trump’s High-Stakes Syria Gamble: Curbing Iran or Risking Jihadist Rise

President Donald Trump has rolled the dice on a bold move, announcing the normalization of U.S. relations with Syria by lifting decades-old sanctions and becoming the first American president in 25 years to meet Syria’s leader. This unexpected pivot, a stark departure from his December post on X claiming Syria is "not our friend" and the U.S. should steer clear, aims to curb Iran’s influence in the region while fostering stability.

According to Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. If successful, it could prevent Syria from becoming a hub for Iranian-backed chaos. However, failure might empower a jihadist government in Damascus, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group still designated as terrorists by the U.S. and UN. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a blow to Iran’s regional ambitions, has opened the door for this gamble, but Syria’s fractured landscape—rife with minority conflicts, ISIS remnants, and former regime loyalists—poses serious challenges.

Trump’s push includes encouraging Syria to join the Abraham Accords and normalize ties with Israel, a tough sell given HTS’s stance and the broader Middle Eastern rejection of Israel’s actions in Gaza. He’s also urged Damascus to suppress Islamic extremist groups, a critical task as Syria re-enters global trade and diplomacy. Yet, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned, Syria teeters on the edge of a potential civil war, making it a prime target for Iran to exploit vulnerabilities through proxies, as it has in Iraq, Lebanon, and beyond.

Iran, known for its patient, long-game strategy, is likely waiting for missteps from Washington or Jerusalem. Taleblu cautions that Tehran will seize on any disarray, targeting downtrodden communities to regain a foothold. For Trump’s plan to succeed, the U.S. must press Syria to address internal divisions and avoid the nation-building pitfalls he’s long opposed, lest Iran’s shadow looms larger.