Trump’s Threats Against Canada Propel Trudeau's Liberal Party to Polling Gains Amid Tariff Tensions

OTTAWA, Canada — Talk about an unexpected boost. As fresh tariffs from President Donald Trump take effect, Canada’s ruling Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, is experiencing a surprising surge in public support. Analysts suggest that Trump himself deserves some credit—or blame, depending on your perspective—for this political twist.

The Conservative Party, once comfortably ahead in the polls, has seen its lead evaporate. An Ipsos poll last week showed the Liberals edging ahead with 38% support, compared to the Conservatives’ 36%. Just six weeks ago, the Conservatives were enjoying a commanding 26-point lead. The political landscape is shifting fast as Trudeau prepares to step down this month, leaving the Liberals under new leadership.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, described the Conservatives’ dramatic polling decline as "unlike anything" he’s seen in four decades. He attributes the shift to two key factors: Trudeau’s impending resignation and Trump’s aggressive rhetoric. Trump’s threats to impose tariffs and even his eyebrow-raising comments about annexing Canada as a "51st state" have turned the political tide north of the border.

Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research agrees, noting that Trump’s actions have shifted the narrative for Canadian voters. "The ballot question has changed from ‘Is it time for a change?’ to ‘Who can best deal with Donald Trump, the new existential threat to Canada’s economy?’" Nanos explained.

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, haven’t helped their case. Their focus on repealing the Liberals’ carbon tax seems out of sync with voters’ growing concerns about Trump’s trade threats. Nanos bluntly stated that the Conservatives’ earlier lead wasn’t due to their popularity but rather widespread dissatisfaction with Trudeau. With the Liberals now seen as the party better equipped to handle Trump’s challenges, the Conservatives’ advantage has evaporated.

The Ipsos poll also revealed that 86% of Canadians want an election "immediately" to address Trump’s tariff threats. Should Mark Carney, the Oxford-educated economist and former central banker, succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader, the Liberals could widen their lead. Carney is considered a strong contender, with pollster Angus Reid noting that 51% of Canadians see him as the best candidate to improve U.S.-Canada relations.

Reid’s polling highlights Carney’s unique appeal, especially in provinces like Quebec, where Trump’s rhetoric resonates deeply. "Carney walks and talks like a Conservative," said Nanos, pointing to his private-sector background. Yet his Liberal affiliation could prove to be a game-changer if he leads the party into a snap election.

Currently, Trudeau’s Liberals hold 153 seats in Canada’s 338-seat House of Commons, governing as a minority. But with the Conservatives floundering and Trump inadvertently bolstering Liberal support, a majority government may no longer be a far-fetched scenario. Perhaps Trump’s "America First" agenda is unintentionally creating a "Canada Stronger" moment.