Turkey's Erdogan Tightens Grip Amid Mass Protests Over Rival's Arrest

Turkey is boiling over with tension as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces backlash for the arrest of his main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, on corruption charges. The move has ignited the largest protests in a decade, with over 1,100 demonstrators detained and injuries reported among police officers.

İmamoğlu, alongside 106 other municipal officials, was detained on March 19 in what human rights advocates are calling a calculated political maneuver meant to suppress opposition. Gonul Tol, a director at the Middle East Institute, described the situation bluntly: the Erdoğan regime appears to be crossing into full-blown autocracy, where elections serve as little more than window dressing.

Human Rights Watch minced no words either, calling the arrest “a lawless weaponization of the justice system to cancel democracy.” Hugh Williamson, director for Europe and Central Asia at the organization, labeled this moment a dark chapter in Turkey’s political history.

Turkey’s Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya claimed that weapons had been seized during protests and tied detained individuals to terrorist organizations or prior criminal activity. But critics are skeptical, viewing this as Erdoğan’s attempt to silence dissent and solidify his power.

In a speech marking the Nowruz festival, Erdoğan doubled down, stating, “Turkey will not submit to street terrorism.” He vowed to preserve public order and combat “vandalism.” While his words aimed to project strength, they also underscored his apparent fear of losing control.

The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) isn’t backing down. Over the weekend, they symbolically nominated İmamoğlu as their presidential candidate for the 2028 elections. İlhan Uzgel, CHP Deputy Chairman for Foreign Policy, urged supporters to take to the streets and defend democracy. He expressed pride in the peaceful protests, even as riot police occasionally resorted to force.

For İmamoğlu, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Once considered Erdoğan’s most formidable challenger, his detention not only sidelines him but also delivers a crushing blow to Turkey’s pro-democracy movement. The timing of his arrest—right after defeating Erdoğan-backed candidates in two mayoral elections—raises plenty of eyebrows.

Gonul Tol warns that Erdoğan may be hoping public outrage will fizzle out before the 2028 elections. But as history shows, protests in the Middle East often take unpredictable turns. How much momentum Turkey’s opposition can sustain remains uncertain.

Amid this domestic turbulence, Erdoğan’s relationship with the West is also under scrutiny. Reports suggest that former President Trump may lift sanctions on Turkey and resume sales of F-35 fighter jets—moves that could further embolden Erdoğan.