Vietnam Axes Two-Child Policy as Birth Rates Plummet and Population Ages

Vietnam has scrapped its decades-old two-child policy, a move aimed at reversing a worrisome decline in birth rates and addressing an aging population crisis. The National Assembly recently passed an amendment, effective immediately, that lifts the restriction, allowing families to decide their size without state interference.

The numbers tell a stark story: Vietnam’s birth rate has dipped to 1.91 children per woman in 2024, with urban hubs like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City hit hardest due to soaring living costs. This isn’t just a statistic—it’s a signal of a society at a crossroads, balancing modernization with the need for a youthful workforce.

Introduced in the 1960s in Northern Vietnam and formalized nationwide in 1993, the two-child policy aimed to curb overpopulation and create a 'golden population.' It worked—perhaps too well. The proportion of citizens under 15 has plummeted from 43% to under 25%, while those aged 15 to 64 now make up 69% of the population, according to the United Nations Population Fund. Vietnam, with over 101 million people, ranks as Southeast Asia’s third-most populous nation, but its demographic future is shaky.

Another wrinkle: gender imbalance. The Ministry of Health reports a rise in male births, from 103 boys per 100 girls in 2006 to 111 in 2024. To tackle gender-selective practices, fines are set to jump from $1,150 to $4,000. It’s a bold step, but will it shift cultural preferences?

Vietnam’s not alone. China’s shift from a one-child to a three-child policy has barely moved the needle on birth rates. The lesson? Policy tweaks alone can’t spark a baby boom when economic pressures and urban lifestyles dominate. Vietnam’s gamble is that freedom to grow families might just tip the scales.