What’s Next for Iran? Post-Ayatollah Scenarios Amid Israel’s Strikes

As Israel’s relentless strikes hammer Iran’s military and nuclear sites, the Islamic Republic teeters on the edge, sparking fierce debate about what might follow its potential collapse. The once-unthinkable end of the Ayatollah’s regime now looms large, with possibilities ranging from a freer Iran to a descent into chaos.

Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s exiled crown prince, stirred the pot yesterday, claiming on social media that the regime’s command structure is crumbling fast. He boldly stated, "The international community is waking up to the fact that the Islamic Republic has no future. Talks about a post-regime Iran have started."

But the path forward isn’t simple. Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, dismisses the idea of a clean "revolution." He told WTFNewsRoom, "It’s more about evolution or devolution—things could get better, or, because this is the Middle East, much worse." Taleblu warns that neither Iran’s opposition nor the West has prepped for this moment, leaving everyone scrambling.

Beni Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, lays out four scenarios. The first? A quiet implosion, Soviet-style, led by a rogue Revolutionary Guard commander and loyalists. With many IRGC generals taken out by Israel, Iran’s regular army might even step up, possibly aligning with disillusioned guards. "It could be a low-key historic shift," Sabti said, though casualties would still pile up.

Scenario two hinges on a spark from the streets. Sabti points to Iran’s political prisoners—former regime insiders turned reformers. If freed, they could rally a weary public, pushing for ties with the U.S. and a chilly but non-hostile stance toward Israel. Taleblu backs this up, noting that at least 80% of Iranians despise the regime, fueled by years of protests over everything from women’s rights to economic woes.

The third option taps into Iran’s nostalgia for its monarchy. Sabti suggests exiled figures like Pahlavi could return as symbols, not rulers, to unify a fractured revolution. But Taleblu cautions, "The diaspora should be a bridge, not the architects. Iranians inside must shape their future."

The final, grimmest scenario? The regime clings to power, morphing into something even nastier—less clerical, more militaristic, and possibly messianic. "If it survives, it’ll be radical," Taleblu warned, pointing to a younger, zealous IRGC ready to double down.

A wildcard in all this is Iran’s non-Persian communities—Ahwazi, Baloch, Azeris, and Kurds. Aref Al-Kaabi, leader of the State of Ahwaz, insists their inclusion is key. "Without trust between Arabs, Kurds, and Persians, the regime won’t fall," he said, slamming Persian opposition abroad for dismissing them as separatists. Recent IRGC arrests in Ahwaz, targeting Arabs, show the regime’s fear of these groups mobilizing.

Taleblu urges unity, not division. "Talk of breaking Iran apart is a disaster waiting to happen," he said. For now, the world watches as Iran’s future hangs in the balance—freedom, fracture, or a fiercer tyranny.