What’s Next in the Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on Ukrainian energy infrastructure after a lengthy phone call with former U.S. President Donald Trump. While this development might sound like progress, it leaves many critical issues hanging precariously in the balance.

The temporary truce, notably, does not extend to the protection of troops on the battlefield or civilians enduring Russia’s aerial assaults. That’s like patching a leaky roof while ignoring the flooded basement—it only solves part of the problem.

Trump described the call as "very good" and "productive," claiming the ceasefire marks the start of a process toward ending the war. He took to social media, emphasizing his hope for a "complete ceasefire" and an ultimate resolution to the conflict. Yet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seemed less optimistic. In a message posted to X, Zelenskyy accused Putin of rejecting a comprehensive ceasefire, stating, "Only a real cessation of strikes on civilian infrastructure by Russia, as proof of its willingness to end this war, can bring peace closer."

Putin’s commitment to a partial truce came on the heels of U.S. discussions with Ukrainian officials, who had reportedly pushed for a broader agreement that included protections for civilians and prisoners of war. However, Putin’s offer fell short, leaving Zelenskyy and his allies pressing the West for continued sanctions on Russia and more robust support for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are set to travel to Saudi Arabia to iron out the details of this tentative agreement. But let’s be real: ironing out the wrinkles in this deal might take more than a trip to Riyadh—it could require a miracle.

Adding to the complexity, the Kremlin has agreed to a prisoner swap involving 175 individuals but has remained silent on the fate of 20,000 Ukrainian children reportedly forcibly transferred to Russia. This silence is deafening and raises serious concerns about the humanitarian cost of this war.

The Trump administration has maintained that true negotiations can only begin once a ceasefire is fully secured. However, critics, including former CIA Moscow Station Chief Dan Hoffman, warn that Washington must avoid appearing more eager for peace than Moscow. As Hoffman put it, "Define success by what serves U.S. national security interests. A bad deal would not serve our interests." A chilling but astute reminder that diplomacy doesn’t always mean peace.

Among the unresolved issues are Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, Western arms supplies, and concerns over Russia’s ongoing aerial campaigns. European leaders and Zelenskyy have suggested deploying peacekeeping troops in Ukraine to prevent future Russian aggression, but Moscow has predictably balked at the idea, labeling it a threat.

As the clock ticks on this fragile ceasefire, the world watches. Will this be the beginning of the end of the war, or just another chapter in this harrowing saga? For now, it seems we’re a long way from peace.