Why Voters Feel Worse Than the Numbers: The Economic Anxiety Undermining Trump’s Second Term

The headline finding in this latest national poll is straightforward: Americans are deeply unhappy with prices, skeptical of the economy, and increasingly convinced that President Donald Trump is focused on the wrong things. But underneath those topline results is a more consequential story: the widening gap between official economic indicators and lived economic reality — and how that gap is reshaping partisan politics, policy priorities, and the limits of Trump’s "America First" brand.

This isn’t just about inflation or presidential approval. It’s about whether any modern administration can govern effectively when voters feel they are permanently stuck in a high‑price economy that no longer responds to the usual levers in Washington.

The Economic Paradox: Stronger Numbers, Darker Mood

On paper, the poll describes an economy that is at least not deteriorating. Negative ratings of economic conditions — 72% saying "only fair" or "poor" — are slightly better than a year ago and lower than at the height of inflation anxiety in 2022. The current inflation rate, respondents are told, is actually lower than the long‑term average.

Yet 44% of voters say they are falling behind financially, and 90% are concerned about inflation and high prices — with 61% "extremely" concerned, the highest in over two years. That disconnect is crucial. It suggests that the political problem is no longer rising prices, but elevated price levels that never came back down after the 2021–2023 inflation shock.

In other words, voters aren’t reacting to the rate of inflation, which economists obsess over; they’re reacting to the absolute dollars on grocery receipts and rent bills. A "six-dollar box of cereal," as Republican pollster Daron Shaw notes, has become a symbol of a new, harsher normal that neither party has fully addressed.

From Trump to Biden and Back: A Long Arc of Economic Distrust

To understand these numbers, it helps to place them in the context of the last decade:

Pre‑pandemic (2017–2019): Under Trump’s first term, unemployment was low and consumer confidence relatively strong. In 2017, 62% said Trump was keeping his "America First" promise. Economic unease existed, but it was masked by rising asset prices and steady job growth.
2020–2021: COVID shock and stimulus. The pandemic recession and massive federal spending created both short‑term rescue and long‑term inflation seeds. For many, this was the turning point: a sense that the economic ground could disappear overnight.
2022–2023: Biden’s inflation problem. Inflation surged to 40‑year highs, peaking above 9% year‑over‑year in 2022. Biden’s approval on the economy fell sharply, and pain at the pump and the grocery store dominated political discourse.
2024–2025: Trump returns, but price levels don’t. Inflation moderates, but prices don’t revert. Trump’s second‑term agenda — tariffs, immigration, and a large legislative push (the "One Big Beautiful Bill") — is seen by voters as disconnected from the central reality of household budgets.

Seen through that timeline, the current polling is less a verdict on Trump alone and more a sign that voters have lost faith that any president can restore the pre‑2020 cost‑of‑living baseline. That cynicism is bipartisan — and it’s a warning for whoever occupies the White House next.

Who’s Hurting Most — And Why That Matters Politically

The poll’s detailed breakdown of who feels they’re "falling behind" is politically explosive:

Women under 45: 57% say they’re losing ground.
Households under $50,000 income: 56% falling behind.
Independents: 53% falling behind.
Urban voters: 49% falling behind.
Non‑college voters: 49% falling behind.
Gender gap: Women are 12 points more likely than men to say they’re falling behind (50% vs. 38%).

These aren’t just demographic details; they map onto key political battlegrounds:

Young and middle‑aged women are central to suburban swing districts and statewide races. Their heightened economic anxiety compounds existing concerns about healthcare, childcare, and reproductive rights.
Lower‑income and non‑college voters include many who have drifted toward Trump’s populist message in recent years. If they conclude that "America First" hasn’t improved their purchasing power, Trump’s base coalition becomes more fragile.
Independents are the most critical group for close elections. A majority saying they’re falling behind — and 58% of voters overall believing Trump is focused on the wrong issues — sets up a credibility problem that no amount of culture‑war messaging can easily fix.

Economist and inequality researcher Heather Boushey has long argued that a growing economy is meaningless to most people if wages don’t keep up with essentials like housing, healthcare, and childcare. That’s precisely the disconnect this poll captures: macro indicators versus household balance sheets.

Misaligned Priorities: What Voters Want Versus What They See

The poll paints a stark picture of misalignment between voter priorities and perceived presidential focus.

Top issues voters say the president should focus on:

High prices – 42%
Healthcare – 19%
Jobs – 12%

Issues voters think he should pay less attention to:

Immigration – 30%
Tariffs – 28%
Foreign policy – 17%

Trump’s best approval ratings are on exactly the issues voters now say should be lower priorities: border security (51%), immigration (45%), crime (47%), foreign policy (42%). His weakest ratings are on the issues they want him focused on: economy (39%), healthcare (37%), government spending (37%), tariffs (36%).

This is a structural political problem: the areas where Trump feels most comfortable and has invested the most rhetorical energy are not the areas where voters most want action. And the flagship policies he has emphasized — tariffs and immigration crackdowns — are seen by voters as either irrelevant to prices or, in the case of tariffs, actively harmful to them.

Trade economist Chad Bown has pointed out that broad tariffs tend to act as a sales tax on consumers: When you tax imports, you’re raising input costs and final prices in ways that households feel long before any theoretical benefits show up. That logic tracks with the polling: Trump’s weakest marks among Republicans are on tariffs, even as his core MAGA base remains overwhelmingly supportive overall.

The Erosion of "America First"

Perhaps the most telling long‑term shift in the poll is the decline in belief that Trump is keeping his "America First" promise:

2017: 62% said he was keeping that pledge.
2025: Only 49% say he is; 51% say he has abandoned it.

The drop is driven mainly by Democrats (down 20 points) and independents (down 26 points). Among Republicans, belief in "America First" remains sky‑high, dipping only slightly from 91% to 87%.

This divergence underscores a critical shift: "America First" has moved from a broad national framing to a tribal identity marker. For Republicans and MAGA voters, it remains a core part of Trump’s brand. For everyone else, the slogan increasingly rings hollow against lived experience: expensive groceries, high rents, and healthcare costs that still dwarf wage gains.

Political scientist Lilliana Mason, who studies partisan identity, has argued that slogans like "America First" function less as policy programs and more as group badges signaling who is on your side and who is not. This poll suggests that while that badge still works inside Trump’s coalition, it no longer convinces persuadable voters that their actual material circumstances are improving.

A Country Worried About Everything, Trusting No One

Beyond economics, the survey shows a broad landscape of anxiety:

82% are concerned about political divisions.
75% worry about a decline in moral values.
74% are concerned about crime.
71% about the federal deficit.
63% about AI technology.
58% about climate change.

At the same time, over six in ten voters disapprove of both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Three‑quarters of independents disapprove of both parties. This is a recipe not just for discontent but for governance paralysis: voters want action on big, structural problems but distrust both parties’ ability to deliver.

Crucially, the poll shows a public that is both punitive and restrained on security issues. Most Republicans favor using the National Guard and military support to fight crime in big cities; most Democrats and a majority of independents oppose it. A majority of voters overall oppose deadly force against presumed Venezuelan drug-trafficking boats, and opposition is rising among all partisan groups. The public seems to be saying: we’re scared, but we’re wary of overreach.

Culture, Technology, and Control: The Social Media Ban Clue

Another telling datapoint: around two‑thirds of parents and voters support banning social media for children under 16 and banning cellphones in K–12 classrooms. Non‑parents are even more supportive of removing phones from schools than parents are.

This points to a broader mood of wanting control and boundaries in a world that feels economically and socially unstable. From social media bans to calls for stricter immigration enforcement to anxiety over AI, the through line is a sense that technology, prices, and politics are moving faster than the institutions designed to regulate them.

Why This Is Worse Than a Simple "Bad Economy" Story

Three deeper dynamics emerge from this polling that are easy to miss in day‑to‑day coverage:

The normalization of a high‑price economy. Voters are not waiting for inflation to "come down" — they’ve absorbed that today’s prices are the new baseline and are judging leaders on whether wages, taxes, and safety nets adjust accordingly. There is little evidence either party has a credible, comprehensive agenda tailored to that reality.
The collapse of cross‑partisan legitimacy. Trump’s overall approval is net negative by 12 points (44–56%), and satisfaction with the country’s direction, while improved, still shows 59% dissatisfied. At the same time, both parties in Congress are deeply unpopular. This isn’t just anger at "Washington"; it’s an indictment of the system’s ability to manage long‑term crises.
The limits of identity politics as an economic shield. Trump’s standing among Republicans and especially MAGA voters remains extraordinarily high — up to 97% job approval among MAGA. Yet that loyalty is not preventing slippage among independents, women, and lower‑income voters who feel they are falling behind. Cultural affinity has real power, but not enough to completely override the grocery bill.

Looking Ahead: What to Watch

Several developments will determine whether this moment hardens into a durable political realignment:

Policy pivot or message discipline? Does the Trump administration shift its agenda toward visible, pocketbook‑level relief — for example, targeted tax credits, prescription drug cost controls, or housing affordability — or does it double down on immigration, tariffs, and symbolic fights that play better in conservative media than at the checkout line?
Democratic recalibration. Democrats have seen their satisfaction with the direction of the country fall by 32 points compared with a year ago. Do they respond with a sharper cost‑of‑living message, or continue to bet that Trump’s controversies and governance style are enough to push swing voters back to them?
Independent voter behavior. With 53% of independents saying they’re falling behind and three‑quarters disapproving of both parties in Congress, there’s an opening for insurgent candidates or issue‑based movements, particularly around economic fairness and regulation of technology, AI, and social media.
Security and restraint. Increasing opposition to military escalation (including action against Venezuelan boats) suggests a public skeptical of new foreign entanglements, even as they remain deeply concerned about crime and border issues. How leaders navigate that tension — tough rhetoric without open conflict — will be crucial.

The Bottom Line

This poll is less a snapshot of Trump’s daily political fortunes than a x‑ray of a country stuck between eras. The emergency inflation of the early 2020s has faded, but its scars remain in permanently higher prices and frayed trust. Voters are sending a consistent message across partisan lines: focus on high prices, healthcare, and jobs — not symbolic fights.

Until a governing agenda emerges that directly and credibly attacks the high‑cost equilibrium Americans now live in, every president — Trump included — will face the same problem: a country that may be doing "better" on paper, but feels poorer, angrier, and less convinced that anyone in Washington is really on its side.

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High Prices, Low Trust: How a Permanently Costly Economy Is Undermining Trump’s Second Term