The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has released its most extensive investigation yet into the tragic events of October 7, 2023, and the days leading up to the Hamas-led attacks. This report sheds light on the planning, execution, and intelligence failures that culminated in the devastating massacre. It’s a sobering reminder of the high stakes in this conflict.

The IDF highlights that around 5,000 to 5,600 militants infiltrated Israel in three waves, launching 4,696 rockets and mortars. The attacks tragically claimed the lives of 829 Israeli civilians, 76 foreign nationals, and 415 security personnel, with 251 hostages taken into Gaza. The report bluntly calls it a "fundamental failure" to understand Hamas’s intentions and readiness for a large-scale surprise attack.

According to the IDF, Hamas had been planning this operation for nearly seven years, starting with the foundational concept in 2016 and culminating in the operational plan by 2021. While the IDF initially believed Hamas would not aim for an all-out war, this assumption allowed the militant group to exploit Israel’s misjudgment. The timing of the attack—coinciding with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah—was no coincidence.

The IDF’s timeline of events paints a chilling picture. Hamas began mobilizing its forces late on October 6, concluded their briefings by early morning on October 7, and launched their first wave by 6:29 a.m. Despite emergency declarations and swift action by Israeli forces, thousands of militants breached Israel’s borders, wreaking havoc well into the evening hours.

The report reveals systemic issues within Israel’s Intelligence Directorate, which had gathered data on Hamas’s intentions as early as 2018 but failed to connect the dots. The belief that Hamas’s primary threat was limited to rockets and mortars led to over-reliance on containment strategies, reduced troop presence at the Gaza border, and an underestimation of the group’s broader ambitions.

Adding to the missteps, critical intelligence—such as unusual Hamas activity and the activation of Israeli SIM cards in Gaza on the eve of the attack—was either overlooked or deemed insignificant. These oversights, combined with a culture overly reliant on precise intelligence, prevented any recalibration of the IDF’s defense posture.

On the operational side, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) performed to its expected standards but was not prepared for the scale of the assault. The report acknowledges the difficulty in distinguishing between IDF troops, civilians, and militants during the chaos. Strikes on Hamas command centers were executed, but the IDF admits it’s hard to determine their full effectiveness given the circumstances.

The IDF’s report is as much a post-mortem as it is a call for transformation. It acknowledges the entrenched mindset of "conflict management" with Hamas and advocates for a shift toward removing threats outright. The lessons from October 7 are etched deeply into Israel’s military psyche, with a strong emphasis on preventative strategies to counter future attacks.

In the end, this report is a stark acknowledgment of the vulnerabilities exposed on that fateful day—and a pledge to never allow such an oversight again.

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