Next Papal Election Set to Shatter Diversity Records, Church Watchers Say

Pope Francis’ worldwide outreach has set the stage for what experts are calling the most diverse papal conclave in the Catholic Church's history. Thanks to his appointments, about 80% of the 135 cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope hail from all corners of the globe, promising a conclave that’s anything but business as usual.

Mary FioRito, a seasoned observer of Vatican affairs, says the makeup of this conclave could push the Church in directions that look pretty different from Francis’ own tenure. For decades, European cardinals called most of the shots. But now, expect significant voices from Africa, Asia, and beyond to weigh in when the voting begins—likely on May 5.

"This will be the most diverse conclave in the history of the church," FioRito said. The shift isn't just symbolic; it could mean a pivot in priorities. While Francis championed synodality—think open discussions on theology and practice—many cardinals from places like Nigeria, Pakistan, and India are laser-focused on immediate challenges like persecution and poverty.

The numbers coming out of Nigeria are nothing short of harrowing: 3,100 Christians killed and 2,830 kidnapped in 2024 alone, according to Open Doors. So, for many African cardinals, the question isn’t which theological nuance to debate, but how to keep their communities safe. As FioRito put it, "We're concerned about things like climate change, and they're concerned about not being locked in a church and set on fire." Talk about priorities with a capital P.

This reality means the next pope may be expected to stand up to what’s been called "ideological colonization"—Western-driven ideas about climate change, abortion, and gender identity that don’t always resonate in other contexts. African prelates are keen to see a leader who recognizes and respects their local struggles instead of pushing a one-size-fits-all vision.

Among the papabili—the Church’s version of the short list—Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő is drawing attention as a potential bridge-builder. At 71, he fits the bill as both energetic and experienced, and he’s respected by a wide range of factions. American-born Cardinal Robert Prevost is also in the conversation, though some suggest cardinals may hesitate to hand even more influence to the U.S.

Then there’s the culture clash brewing between tradition and modernity—a theme that’s been especially spicy during Francis’ era. FioRito points out that, even as faith declines in the West, younger Catholics are showing up for the more traditional Latin Mass. "That’s where the 20-somethings are going to Mass," she noted. Still, she suspects this is more of a niche issue and unlikely to tip the scales in the conclave.

Ultimately, FioRito says papal elections aren’t about party platforms or policy wishlists. It comes down to the character and capability of individual candidates. "We’re looking at individual men and asking ourselves, who can serve the church best at this moment and who is the person best equipped to take on this international role?" she explained. The next pope, after all, is expected to be a symbol of unity and a guide for Catholics worldwide—no pressure or anything.

With the global Church at a crossroads, the cardinals will be weighing what the faith needs most in its next leader: continuity, change, or maybe just someone who can keep the peace while the world spins madly on.