Taiwan Holds Its Breath as Vatican Eyes China After Pope Francis's Death

Taiwan is feeling a little jittery these days, and it’s not just the aftershock of losing Pope Francis. As the Catholic Church gears up to choose a new leader, Taipei is watching the Vatican’s every move—especially its ongoing flirtation with Beijing. For a tiny island with less than 300,000 Catholics, the Holy See’s friendship carries big political weight, since it's the last European state that recognizes Taiwan as the real "China."

Meanwhile, China's Catholic population dwarfs Taiwan's, with up to 12 million believers plus nearly 400,000 in Hong Kong. But the Vatican still treats Taipei as its diplomatic dance partner, much to Beijing's chagrin.

After Francis’s death, Taiwan’s President William Lai said he’d attend the funeral, but that plan fizzled fast. Instead, former Vice President Chen Chien-jen—a committed Catholic—will represent Taiwan. According to local analyst Ross Feingold, the Vatican probably shut the door on a presidential visit. It’s a bit of a diplomatic snub, especially since a former Taiwanese president did get a seat at the table for John Paul II’s funeral back in 2005.

The tension isn’t new. Since 2013, the Vatican has been cautiously cozying up to China. In 2018, it inked a deal giving both sides a say in picking bishops, trying to bridge the gap between China’s state-run church and loyalists to Rome. Vatican officials insist it’s all about faith, not politics. But for Taiwan, the writing on the wall is hard to ignore.

China, ever the tough negotiator, demands that countries cut ties with Taiwan before talking to Beijing. That’s left Taipei with just a dozen official friends worldwide—and the Holy See is easily the most glamorous of the bunch.

Still, some experts say Taiwan shouldn’t panic. Thomas Tu, a Vatican diplomacy specialist, argues the Holy See is playing the long game. The Vatican survived empires, he notes, and isn’t likely to drop Taiwan in a hurry just to please China. Case in point: the Vatican keeps a high-level envoy in Vietnam, even without formal ties.

Pope Francis himself was big on outreach, even flying over China and sending greetings to President Xi Jinping. Each friendly gesture toward Beijing, though, has sparked criticism inside the Church, especially from Cardinal Joseph Zen in Hong Kong. Zen, famous for standing up to China, even had his passport returned just so he could attend Francis’s funeral—talk about VIP treatment for a troublemaker.

For decades, China’s government has kept a tight grip on its Catholic population through the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association. While the Vatican has made compromises, it’s still holding out for religious autonomy—a tall order under China’s one-party rule. Any real breakthrough would likely require the Vatican to ditch Taiwan, which remains the ultimate dealbreaker for Beijing.

As the Catholic world readies to elect a new pope, nerves in Taiwan are frayed but not yet frazzled. Most experts agree the next pontiff won’t rush into any dramatic diplomatic shifts. As Dr. Chang Ching puts it, this seventy-plus-year rift is just a blip in the Church’s long history—and China’s even longer one. In other words, patience is a virtue, and it looks like both sides have plenty of it.