Trump and Musk: Wisconsin and Florida Elections Hint at 2026 Midterm Showdown

Democrats scored big in Wisconsin, securing a decisive victory in a historically expensive judicial election, while Republicans held their ground in Florida, comfortably retaining two congressional seats. These results have sparked intense debate over what they mean for the 2026 midterms.

In Wisconsin, liberal Judge Susan Crawford triumphed over conservative Judge Brad Schimel by a solid 10-point margin. The outcome keeps the liberal majority intact on the state Supreme Court, setting the stage for pivotal rulings on issues like abortion and labor rights. The election, bolstered by millions of dollars from outside groups, became a proxy battle over President Donald Trump and his billionaire advisor Elon Musk. Musk didn't shy away from the fray, personally injecting $20 million into the race and even distributing $1 million checks to voters supporting his agenda. It's not every day you see a billionaire handing out million-dollar thank-you notes.

Meanwhile, in Florida, the GOP celebrated double-digit wins in two deeply Republican districts. While Democrats poured significant resources into the races and managed to overperform relative to past results, the Republicans maintained their dominance, with margins of 15 and 14 points. GOP strategists, though, were quick to mock the Democrats' efforts, calling them an "embarrassing" waste of $20 million.

The stakes were high for both parties, as these elections were held on the eve of Trump's announcement of hefty tariffs, a move that's already rattling financial markets and could shape the political landscape heading into 2026. Democrats are framing the Wisconsin win as a bellwether, signaling dissatisfaction with Trump's policies and Musk's controversial downsizing of the federal workforce.

But Republicans aren't sweating it too much. They point to their victories in Florida and argue that special elections, while dramatic, aren't always predictive. Veteran GOP strategist Colin Reed emphasized that these contests often reflect unique local dynamics rather than national trends.

Democrats, however, face broader challenges. Despite the Wisconsin win, their national approval ratings are scraping rock bottom, with Congress polling at just 30% favorability. Activists are frustrated by the party's inability to counter Trump's agenda effectively. Even Democratic leaders admit they have some soul-searching to do before the midterms.

For now, both sides are claiming victory, spinning the results to suit their narratives. But as the dust settles, one thing is clear: the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be a fiery showdown, with Trump and Musk front and center.