From ‘Backwards’ to Bellwether: How North Carolina Reveals the South’s Real Future

Sarah Johnson
December 16, 2025
Brief
North Carolina’s boom reveals how the South is quietly becoming America’s economic and political center of gravity — and why stereotypes about a “backward” region now miss the most important story.
Is the American South Really “Backward”? North Carolina Shows a Very Different Future
Pastor Corey Brooks’ walk across North Carolina offers more than an uplifting travelogue; it taps into one of the most consequential shifts in American life: the South’s transformation from a region caricatured as poor, racist, and “backward” into the country’s demographic, economic, and cultural center of gravity. Underneath the anecdotes about churches rebuilding homes and factory towns humming with work is a deeper story about where power and opportunity in America are moving — and what that means for politics, culture, and inequality.
The South’s Old Story vs. Its New Reality
The narrative Brooks pushes back against — the South as America’s problem — is rooted in real history. For much of the 20th century, the South lagged behind the rest of the country on nearly every major indicator: per-capita income, educational attainment, health outcomes, and industrial development. Jim Crow, segregation, and resistance to civil rights cemented a perception of the region as morally and economically behind the curve.
But over the past 40 years, particularly since the 1990s, that picture has been steadily upended. North Carolina is a prime example:
- Population growth: North Carolina’s population has more than doubled since 1970, fueled by both domestic migration and immigration. The South as a whole now accounts for about 38% of the U.S. population and has been the fastest-growing region for years.
- Economic muscle: The so-called “Sun Belt boom” has shifted corporate headquarters, manufacturing plants, and tech investment from the Northeast and Midwest into states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
- Political clout: As people move South, so does political power. Southern and Sun Belt states have gained congressional seats and Electoral College votes at the expense of the Northeast and Rust Belt.
Brooks’ on-the-ground observations — bustling factories, corporate investments, military veterans feeding the workforce, conservative social policies paired with pro-business tax cuts — fit into this larger pattern: the South is no longer just “catching up.” It is setting the pace in key sectors of the 21st-century economy, from advanced manufacturing to logistics and life sciences.
Why Corporations Are Betting on the South
The list of major investments Brooks cites — JetZero, Vulcan Elements, Novartis — is part of a much wider wave. In recent years, automakers and battery manufacturers (Toyota, Hyundai, Ford, VinFast), chipmakers, and pharmaceutical companies have all picked Southern and border states for new plants. The underlying drivers include:
- Lower labor and land costs: Wages and real estate are typically cheaper than in coastal urban hubs, lowering overall operating costs.
- Right-to-work laws: Many Southern states limit union power, which companies often prefer for flexibility and cost reasons.
- Aggressive incentives: State governments offer large tax abatements, infrastructure deals, and training subsidies to attract megaprojects.
- Logistics advantages: Proximity to ports (Charleston, Savannah, Wilmington), rail corridors, and interstate networks makes the region ideal for manufacturing and distribution.
- Population and workforce: A growing, relatively young population — including retiring or transitioning military personnel — provides a steady labor pipeline.
Brooks’ emphasis on a “hardcore work ethic” and veterans moving into factory jobs reflects a real corporate bet: that Southern workers, especially those with military backgrounds, bring reliability, discipline, and willingness to work in demanding environments. Economists have long noted that business leaders rank workforce quality as a top factor behind relocation decisions. Military-heavy states like North Carolina, with major installations such as Fort Liberty (formerly Fort Bragg), enjoy a built-in advantage.
Faith, Churches, and the Shadow Welfare State
One of the most important — and most overlooked — parts of Brooks’ piece is not the jobs, but the churches. His story of congregations mobilizing faster than federal agencies after Hurricane Helene is illustrative of a broader dynamic: in much of the South, religious institutions still operate as a kind of shadow welfare state.
Historically, Black churches in particular have provided social services, mutual aid, and disaster relief in the face of government neglect. In recent decades, white evangelical and multiracial congregations have expanded similar roles through food banks, addiction support, and housing assistance. This is not simply a religious story; it is a governance story:
- Weak safety nets: Many Southern states have leaner welfare benefits, stricter eligibility criteria, and, in some cases, refusals to expand Medicaid. That shifts more of the burden of crisis response onto families, nonprofits, and churches.
- Social capital vs. public spending: High levels of religious participation and tight-knit communities can produce strong informal support networks, but they also risk masking structural gaps in public services.
Brooks sees church-led recovery as a sign of virtue and resilience, and in many ways it is. But from a policy perspective, it raises hard questions: Are communities being forced to rely on charity and faith because the government is failing? Or is this a deliberate model — smaller state, bigger civil society — that other regions might emulate? The answer is likely a mix, and it varies sharply along racial and class lines.
School Choice and the New Southern Social Contract
Brooks highlights North Carolina’s expanded Opportunity Scholarship program as evidence that the state is “using our money to create agency, responsibility and accountability.” This is a window into a broader ideological experiment underway across the South: linking pro-market economic policy with aggressive K–12 restructuring.
In North Carolina and several neighboring states, policymakers have moved to:
- Expand vouchers and education savings accounts for private and religious schools.
- Grow charter school sectors, often with limited union presence.
- Impose curriculum and content restrictions — such as removing “explicit” books and limiting how race and gender are taught.
- Enact policies on trans participation in sports and bathroom access framed as protecting “girls’ sports” and parental rights.
These moves are often cheered by conservatives as empowering parents and protecting community values, and criticized by many educators and civil-rights groups as undermining public schools and marginalizing vulnerable students. The Opportunity Scholarship, for example, may free some children from underperforming schools — but it can also divert funds from the public system and deepen stratification if not carefully designed.
This “new Southern social contract” pairs low taxes and business-friendly regulation with a cultural agenda centered on traditional family roles, gender norms, and religion in public life. North Carolina, sitting between Deep South and Mid-Atlantic sensibilities, has become a key laboratory for this model.
The South’s Uneven Boom: Who Benefits?
Brooks is right that the South is not a drag on America’s economy. But the idea that it’s simply “America’s lift” glosses over serious tensions. The region’s boom is real — and deeply unequal.
Key realities often missing from celebratory narratives include:
- Poverty and wage gaps: Several Southern states still register some of the highest poverty rates in the country. Manufacturing jobs may pay better than retail or service work, but many new plants start workers at wages below unionized counterparts in the Midwest.
- Racial disparities: Black and Latino residents are disproportionately likely to be in low-wage sectors, face housing and health insecurity, and live in under-resourced school districts.
- Rural–urban divide: Metro areas like Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Atlanta are booming, while many rural counties continue to lose population, hospitals, and economic anchors.
Brooks’ own background — a pastor from Chicago’s South Side who sees in the South a model for agency and responsibility — is part of a growing conversation among Black conservatives and centrists who are frustrated with government-centric anti-poverty approaches in Northern cities. That perspective is important, but so is the counterpoint: many scholars and activists argue that without stronger labor protections, robust public investment, and racial equity measures, the Southern boom will reproduce 19th- and 20th-century patterns under a 21st-century veneer.
Cultural Identity, Patriotism, and the Politics of Perception
Brooks frames the South as the place “where America’s heart still beats strong,” with faith, patriotism, and family at its core. This taps into a long-running political contest over who defines “real America.” For years, populist movements have cast coastal elites and big cities as decadent and detached, while rural and Southern communities are portrayed as morally grounded but economically neglected.
Two things are happening at once:
- Reputational lag: Many outside perceptions of the South are stuck in the 1960s. The reality of diverse, rapidly growing metros and advanced industries often surprises outsiders.
- Selective story-telling: Within the South, political leaders and commentators sometimes highlight faith, order, and work ethic while downplaying histories of racial violence, ongoing discrimination, and the political battles over voting rights and policing.
Brooks’ essay pushes back against condescension from “elites up north,” but it also participates in a counter-mythmaking: the South as a uniquely virtuous, almost redemptive space. Understanding the region requires holding both truths together: the South is simultaneously a site of innovation and opportunity, and a place where unresolved legacies of slavery and segregation still shape land ownership, school boundaries, wealth, and power.
What Experts See in the Southern Shift
Regional economists, sociologists, and political scientists have been tracking this Southern resurgence for years. Their insights help frame Brooks’ anecdotes within larger trends.
Urban studies scholar Richard Florida, who has chronicled the movement of the “creative class,” notes that:
“The American growth map is rotating toward the South and interior. The question isn’t whether the South will be central to our economic future — it already is — but whether its political and social institutions will evolve fast enough to match its economic dynamism.”
Historian William H. Frey, who has analyzed demographic changes, points out that domestic migrants to the South are often more educated and more diverse than long-term residents, which could slowly alter local politics and culture over time.
And sociologist Arlie Hochschild’s work on conservative communities, while focused more on Louisiana, captures a sentiment Brooks echoes: the sense that dignity comes from work, self-reliance, and faith, and that government aid — when seen as misdirected or captured by distant bureaucrats — can feel like an affront rather than a lifeline.
Looking Ahead: North Carolina as a Bellwether
North Carolina may be one of the best test cases for where the country is headed. A few dynamics to watch:
- Political balance: The state has swung between Democratic and Republican leadership in recent years and remains closely contested in national elections. Its path may foreshadow the future of Southern politics as younger, more diverse populations collide with older, more conservative electorates.
- Workforce and education: Can the state align its K–12 and higher-education systems with the demands of advanced manufacturing and tech — while navigating fierce cultural battles over what gets taught and who gets funded?
- Inclusive growth: Will the billions in investment that Brooks celebrates translate into broader upward mobility, or concentrate wealth in a few metro zones and corporate enclaves?
- Climate and disasters: Hurricane Helene is a reminder that the booming South is also on the front lines of climate risk. How the region balances church-led resilience with state and federal capacity will matter economically and politically.
The Bottom Line
Brooks’ walk through North Carolina punctures a lazy stereotype: the South is no longer a peripheral, backward region. It is central to America’s economic trajectory and increasingly to its political and cultural battles. But the story is more complicated than a simple reversal from “problem” to “model.”
The emerging Southern order pairs economic dynamism with fragile safety nets, strong community ties with persistent inequality, and an assertive moral vision with unresolved historical wounds. Whether this model becomes the template for a renewed American middle class or hardens into a new geography of winners and losers will depend on choices Southern leaders — and the rest of the country — make over the next decade.
Brooks is right about one thing: you cannot understand where America is going if you still think of the South as where it’s been.
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Editor's Comments
Brooks’ account is powerful precisely because it is personal: he sees in North Carolina’s churches, factories, and family programs a corrective to what he experienced on Chicago’s South Side. But that vantage point also narrows the frame. He emphasizes individual responsibility and faith-driven resilience while only briefly acknowledging the structural forces that shape who gets which opportunities — zoning decisions, historical redlining, school district boundaries, state tax codes, and labor law. One critical question going forward is whether the South can sustain its boom without confronting these deeper layers. The region is attracting both capital and people at a historic pace; with that comes an opportunity to design a more equitable model of growth rather than simply repeating older patterns under new branding. The danger is that feel-good narratives about hard work and patriotism can become a substitute for hard policy choices about wages, housing, health care, and inclusion — precisely the choices that will determine whether the South becomes a durable blueprint for national renewal or the site of the next wave of disillusionment.
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