Is Africa About to Give the World Its Next Pope?

JOHANNESBURG: The question buzzing through Vatican corridors: Could the next pope really come from Africa? With Catholicism booming on the continent, some analysts say not only is it possible, but it might just be overdue.

The Vatican reported in October 2024 that Africa saw the biggest increase in new Catholics globally, with over 7 million Africans joining the faith last year alone. To put that in perspective, Africa was home to fewer than a million Catholics in 1910; now it boasts a staggering 265 million. That's what you call a growth spurt.

All eyes are on three African "pope-able" (yes, that's the term) cardinals: Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, from the Democratic Republic of Congo; Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76, from Ghana; and Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea, although at 80, Sarah is considered less likely due to his age.

The idea of an African pope is sparking excitement, and not just because of the numbers. Author Greg Tobin notes, "The Church has been growing at an amazingly rapid rate over the past few decades in the face of government opposition, persecution, and even violence." Many of Africa's cardinals are highly educated, often with Western experience, which could be a plus for the global stage.

Theologian Jonathan Morris points out the potential for unity, suggesting an African pope could bridge ideological divides among cardinals. The African church is generally more conservative than its European and American siblings, but as Morris puts it, "Wouldn’t these Europeans and Americans love to be part of making history!" There's something about being on the winning team, after all.

However, some in the Church worry about an overly conservative leader. Tobin observes that African church leaders sometimes swing between ambivalence and staunch conservatism—a "mixed bag" that might not appeal to all voting cardinals, who are looking for both clear theology and a strong pastoral touch.

Still, the argument for an African pope isn’t just about demographics. It’s also about resilience. In places like the DRC and Nigeria, Christians have faced brutal persecution, with thousands killed for their faith in recent years. Despite this, Nigeria has the highest rate of Mass attendance among Catholics in the world—94%, according to Georgetown's Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate, followed closely by Kenya at 73%. That’s some serious devotion.

As for the leading candidates, Cardinal Ambongo Besungu is known for his vocal opposition to authoritarianism at home, though some question the consistency of his theology. Cardinal Turkson, once a key Vatican troubleshooter during the pandemic, is respected and liked by Pope Francis, but has been less visible lately; his election would be a true curveball. Cardinal Sarah, while respected, is ineligible to vote due to age, making his candidacy more symbolic than likely.

And if an African does ascend to the papacy, it wouldn’t be a first. Victor I from North Africa served as pontiff way back in the 2nd century, followed by Miltiades and Gelasius I. Sometimes history really does repeat itself—just takes a millennium or two.