Who’s Next in Line? The Race to Become the 267th Pope Heats Up

Pope Francis has died at the age of 88, closing the chapter on a papacy that left an undeniably deep mark on the Catholic Church. While the world mourns, the Vatican is already abuzz with quiet speculation about who will don the famous white robes next. The Sacred College of Cardinals, a tradition dating back to 1378, will once again be tasked with selecting the next leader of the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics.

Out of 252 cardinals worldwide, only 138 are under 80 and eligible to cast a vote in the secretive conclave that decides the future pope. While technically any Catholic man could be chosen, let’s be real—the red hats are almost guaranteed to keep it in the club.

Among the frontrunners is Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state and its top diplomat. Known for his moderate politics and extensive diplomatic resume, Parolin is viewed as the candidate most likely to carry on Francis’ legacy. He’s spent years in the diplomatic trenches in Mexico and Nicaragua, and his appointment by Francis in 2014 only boosted his standing among the cardinals.

Luis Antonio Tagle, dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis,” is also getting plenty of buzz. As the pro-prefect for the Dicastery for Evangelization and president of the Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious, Tagle’s inclusive approach—especially toward LGBTQI Catholics, divorcees, and single mothers—sets him apart. In a 2015 interview, he openly critiqued the Church’s severe stance on these groups, signaling a potentially liberal shift if he’s chosen.

On the conservative side, Cardinal Peter Erdo is a heavyweight. He’s made it clear he opposes allowing divorced or remarried Catholics to receive Holy Communion, and his hardline take on marriage and immigration sharply contrasts with Francis’ more open policies. If Erdo gets the nod, it would be a clear sign the Church is ready to pivot back to tradition.

Another conservative in the running is Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the Democratic Republic of Congo. As the Church’s influence in Africa grows rapidly, Ambongo’s rejection of Pope Francis’ blessing of same-sex unions has made him a hero to traditionalists, especially after he and other African priests declared such unions “contrary to the will of God.”

From the U.S., Raymond Burke—a former St. Louis archbishop and fan of the Latin Mass—emerges as the leading American candidate. Appointed by Benedict XVI in 2010, Burke has vocally opposed Francis’ more progressive stances on contraception, LGBTQ issues, and civil marriage.

For those hoping for a homegrown Italian pope, Matteo Zuppi is on the shortlist. As president of the Italian Episcopal Conference and former archbishop of Bologna, Zuppi is seen as an insider and a Francis favorite. His recent diplomatic missions, including a 2023 peace trip to Ukraine and a meeting with President Biden, signal his rising profile in Vatican circles.

As tradition demands, the conclave will keep voting until a candidate secures a two-thirds majority. Once chosen, the world will know when white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel—an ancient signal that a new pope is ready to step onto the balcony and greet the world.

With ideological divides running deep and the global Church changing fast, this conclave promises to be one for the history books. Whether the next pope is a reformer, a traditionalist, or a diplomatic bridge-builder, the Catholic world—and honestly, most of the rest of us—will be watching just to see what color the smoke turns.